Trump’s Approval Rating Just Hit Its Lowest Point — And the Numbers Are Worse Than He’s Admitting

In front of the cameras on March 20, Donald Trump confidently announced that he had received 100% of the vote in a recent CNN poll. It was the kind of assertion that spreads more slowly through fact-checkers and more quickly on social media. It was NBC’s survey, not CNN’s. What about the sample? Only self-described MAGA Republicans, who by definition already back the man. The irony is difficult to ignore: a president who frequently creates his own version of fake news while denouncing it.

The numbers themselves reveal a different picture. Trump’s overall job approval dropped from 40% the week before to 36% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in late March 2026. His net approval rating is -18 according to a YouGov survey done for The Economist. These are not outlier results from researchers funded by the opposition. These surveys follow the same methodology as those that have been used for decades to gauge approval ratings.

Why did things change so fast? A war and a gas pump struck at about the same time. Israel and the United States launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28. Oil shipments across the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted by the action, and American gas prices increased by about $1 per gallon in a matter of days. The optics were challenging for a president who built his 2024 campaign on promises of economic assistance and who made a clear commitment to stay away from “stupid wars,” as he once put it.

These surveys reveal real economic anxiety. Only 29% of Americans believe that Trump is managing the economy as a whole. This is the lowest percentage that has been recorded during either of his two terms, and it is lower than any comparable rating that Joe Biden received, whose economic stewardship was a major complaint that propelled Trump’s election victory. His management of the cost of living is approved by 25% of respondents. That represents one in four Americans. Apparently, the others are doing silent, angry math while standing at gas stations.

Even the Republican bloc is beginning to show signs of weakness, but Trump’s position among Republicans is still largely stable. Approximately one in five Republicans are dissatisfied with his overall performance, a slight change from one in seven just a week ago. What’s more telling is that 34% of Republicans are dissatisfied with his handling of the cost of living, up from 27% in the poll conducted the week before. These are not Democrats seeking an excuse to express disapproval. These are his own supporters, and they are under pressure.

This demographic map is worth looking at. Unsurprisingly, white male voters continue to be among his most ardent supporters. Members of ethnic minority groups and younger voters express strong disapproval. However, the more unexpected softness is coming from two historically dependable Republican groups: college-educated voters, who are among the least likely to support Trump, and pension-age voters, who are exhibiting a lackluster reaction that the party most likely didn’t expect. When the price of groceries and gasoline increases significantly, seniors on fixed incomes usually take notice. Every week, they become aware of it.

Speaking to Republican congressmen on March 9, Trump made a statement that was both revealing and boastful. He asked, “Do you notice you don’t hear that word anymore?” in reference to “affordability.” He appeared happy that economic issues were no longer on the front page due to the war. However, he might have misinterpreted the situation. Voters’ concerns about inflation have hardly changed; according to YouGov data, Trump’s net approval rating on prices and inflation is -34, which hasn’t changed much since October. It’s possible that the word has disappeared from headlines. Nobody’s grocery receipt has lessened the feeling.

The war itself is still very unpopular. The U.S. strikes on Iran are opposed by 61% of Americans. Just 26% of respondents think the conflict will increase security, while 46% think it will make the US less safe over time. Trump’s claims that talks are in progress have been refuted by Iran, and there are rumors that Washington is getting ready to deploy thousands more troops to the area. The conflict is still obviously unresolved, and analysts—and probably some Republican strategists as well—believe that each week the conflict drags on is another week of political exposure leading up to the November midterm elections.

Currently, 63% of Americans say that the US economy is “somewhat weak” or “very weak.” This comprises 84% of Democrats, 66% of independents, and 40% of Republicans. A single press conference won’t solve the messaging problem when four out of ten members of your own party have negative things to say about the economy. Republican strategist Amanda Makki presented it in a tactful understatement: the president needs voters to believe that assistance is on the way. What that assistance might look like and when it might come are still unknowns.

At 36%, Trump’s approval rating is still marginally higher than Biden’s floor of 35% and technically higher than his own first-term low of 33%. Historical background is important. However, trajectory also does. 47% of voters supported him going into this second term. Since then, the decline has been steady and has recently accelerated due to the combined effects of war and rising fuel prices. What transpires in the Middle East and at the pump—neither of which a president can completely control—will determine whether the midterm environment changes. People create history, but not always in circumstances of their own choosing, as Karl Marx once noted. Despite his self-assurance, Trump is learning what that means in real time.