USAR Stock Jumps 11% After $2.8 Billion Bet on a Single Brazilian Mine

USA Rare Earth is one of those stocks that only becomes intriguing when geopolitics take a sharp turn. USAR shares ended Wednesday at $25.41, up 11.2% in a single session, continuing a week that had already seen gains of 38.5% and 46% over the previous month. The stock was trading in single digits a year ago. It currently has a negative earnings line, a $5.54 billion market capitalization, and one of the most aggressive acquisition announcements outside of China in the rare-earth industry.

A deal that still seems nearly too big for the company making it serves as the catalyst. USA Rare Earth bet its future on a single ionic-clay mine in the state of Goiás by announcing plans to buy Brazil’s Serra Verde for $2.8 billion, which includes $300 million in cash and 126.9 million new shares. The numbers seem absurd for a business that recorded only $1.64 million in revenue for the fourth quarter. However, it is more difficult to ignore the strategic reasoning. The only heavy rare earth manufacturer outside of Asia that can produce all four magnetic rare earths on a large scale is Serra Verde.

“Outside Asia” is a term that is currently very popular in Washington. Heavy rare earths like dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium are precisely the elements that go into permanent magnets for electric cars, wind turbines, and—most importantly—defense platforms like the F-35. China is responsible for about 90% of the world’s rare earth processing. This concentration risk has long been a concern of the U.S. Geological Survey. A special-purpose vehicle funded in part by U.S. government entities has already secured Serra Verde’s Phase 1 offtake. To put it another way, Washington has already embraced the mine. USA Rare Earth is now interested in acquiring it.

The previous CEO, Barbara Humpton, referred to the acquisition as a “transformational step”—a term used by executives when they are aware of the high stakes. The deal’s structure reflects Humpton’s career at the nexus of technology and industrial policy. A supply chain that truly runs from dirt to finished magnet without going through Chinese hands is created by combining the feedstock from Serra Verde, the Round Top deposit in Texas, the Less Common Metals operation in the United Kingdom, and the soon-to-open magnet plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

However, belief and execution are not the same. It is anticipated that Phase 1 at Serra Verde will generate roughly 6,400 metric tons of rare earth oxide per year by 2027. The magnet plant in Oklahoma is still operating at full capacity. The current revenue for USAR is hardly noticeable. Net income is still significantly negative. The market may be undervaluing the stock by more than a third if the integration succeeds, according to some narratives that push fair value closer to $38.60. Analysts set an average price target of $34.17. It’s a big “if.”

It’s difficult to ignore the similarities between this and the rally of MP Materials a few years ago, when defense and EV narratives collided to propel a small mining company into the public eye. In the last year, USAR shares have already reached a high of $43.98. Additionally, they have been as low as $8. The cost of admission is volatility.

Investors appear to think that the West is serious about reestablishing a mineral supply chain independent of Beijing. It won’t be evident until the Serra Verde deal closes in the third quarter and the Oklahoma plant begins shipping magnets whether USA Rare Earth proves it or serves as a cautionary tale. Until then, the chart speaks for itself; at the moment, it’s yelling.