On Thursday, March 26, the screens on the New York Stock Exchange’s trading floor conveyed a narrative that is difficult to understand from the calendar.The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 470-point decline. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at their lowest levels since last September, the Nasdaq confirmed it had entered correction territory, down more than 10% from its record high on October 29. The price of oil was rising.
The yield on Treasury bonds was rising. Rates for mortgages reached their highest level since September. Reports that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire proposal had caused those same indexes to rise the day before. The optimism vanished as fast as it had appeared when Tehran rejected it by Thursday.
Investing in a macroenvironment during a war looks like this. The U.S.-Israeli-Iranian conflict, which started with military action on February 28, has added a variable to U.S. stock markets that no rate forecast or earnings model can fully account for. Since the beginning of the conflict, West Texas Intermediate crude has increased by about 45%.
On Thursday, Brent crude was more than $108. A large amount of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been partially disrupted. As a result, shipping firms like Maersk have been forced to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding days and expenses to global supply chains. The OECD publicly cautioned that a complete closure of the strait could significantly increase inflation and that the conflict has thrown the world economy off a stronger growth trajectory.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Index | Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) |
| Ticker | ^DJI |
| March 26, 2026 Close | 45,960.11 |
| Day’s Change | −469.38 (−1.01%) |
| 52-Week Context | Attempting to snap 4 consecutive weeks of losses |
| Nasdaq Status | In correction territory (−10%+ from October 29, 2025 high) |
| S&P 500 Close (March 26) | 6,477.16 (−1.74%) — lowest since last September |
| West Texas Intermediate (WTI) | ~$96.30/barrel (+2%); up ~45% since U.S./Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28 |
| Brent Crude | ~$103.80/barrel (up 5.7% on March 26); risen ~33% since war started |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.46% (highest since last July) |
| 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.38% (highest since September — up from 6.22% the prior week) |
| Gold Futures | ~$4,430/oz (+1.2%); peaked above $5,625 on Jan. 29 |
| Fed Rate Cut Expectations | Zero cuts priced in for 2026 (CME FedWatch) |
| Key Market Drivers | Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruption, Meta/Alphabet lawsuit verdict |
| Reference Website | Yahoo Finance — Dow Jones Industrial Average |
Presumably, the Federal Reserve is quite uncomfortable with all of this. Expectations of a rate cut have completely vanished. Markets are pricing in zero cuts for 2026, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. This is a significant departure from expectations that were in place just a few months ago. The 10-year Treasury yield, which has an impact on borrowing costs throughout the economy, closed at 4.42% on Thursday and continued to rise on Friday.
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey, the average 30-year fixed rate was 6.38%, the highest since September and up from 6.22% the previous week. The timing is not favorable for anyone looking to purchase a home this spring.
There were moments of hope throughout the week. When news of diplomatic outreach surfaced on Wednesday, there was real relief. The Dow rose 300 points, oil fell below $100, and gold surged on hopes that the Fed might eventually find space to ease. It was the type of market session that would indicate a turn in less erratic times. It lasted about twenty-four hours in the current setting. Iran rejected the U.S. proposal on Thursday, and President Trump took a two-pronged stance, warning Iran that there was “no turning back” if it failed to reach an agreement while simultaneously claiming the market impact was manageable. Instead of pricing in optimism, markets opted to price in uncertainty as they navigated between conciliatory and threatening tones.
The biggest losses on Thursday were seen in technology and communication stocks. Nvidia led the Dow decliners, closing down more than 4%. A Los Angeles jury found both Alphabet and Meta liable in a historic social media addiction case, adding legal uncertainty to the macro headwind. As a result, Alphabet and Meta saw sharp declines of 3.5% and nearly 8%, respectively.
Although the case, which focused on the companies’ platform design decisions rather than the content they hosted, resulted in $3 million in damages, it also raised concerns about the future of the larger litigation cycle. The communications industry was simultaneously hit on two fronts. The only bright spot was energy, which rose in tandem with crude prices as stocks in the energy sector usually do when the underlying commodity rises.
As these markets move through this period, there’s a sense that the four-week losing streak isn’t really due to any one piece of negative news, but rather to the accumulation of risk factors that are all simultaneously pointing in the same direction. The price of oil is high enough to trigger inflation again. Treasury yields are high enough to be a serious rival to returns on stocks.
Legal liability is spreading to new industries. And a geopolitical conflict that has so far defied all investors’ attempts to predict when it will be resolved. With Friday’s futures pointing slightly lower, the three major indexes are attempting to avoid a fifth consecutive losing week. Like nearly everything else at the moment, whether they succeed depends on what transpires in the Middle East and whether the 15-point proposal that appeared to be progress on Wednesday finds any new life by the end of trading.
