Intel Stock Price Hits 26-Year High: The Turnaround Nobody Saw Coming

Observing Intel trade at $68.50 seems bizarre. Not because the figure is remarkable—a decade ago, $70 was typical for this company—but rather because it seemed like Intel might never see that amount again in the near future. Shares were trading at about $19 in the summer of 2024. In Santa Clara, every investor meeting was like a wake. There were layoffs announced. The dividend was reduced. The foundry company was losing money. Then, gradually, the narrative began to shift.

Intel’s stock has increased 74% so far this year as of Monday. $18.25 is the 52-week low. Only three trading days ago, the 52-week high of $70.32 was reached. That nine-day winning streak is Intel’s longest on record, and it came just before the company’s April 23 Q1 2026 earnings report. Approximately $343.94 billion is the market capitalization, a figure that would have seemed unreal a year ago. In trading rooms from Mumbai to Manhattan, everyone is currently wondering if this is a true turnaround or if the rally has outpaced its fundamentals.

One man is largely responsible for the rally. Since taking over as CEO in March 2025, Lip-Bu Tan has spent the last thirteen months doing what his predecessor, Pat Gelsinger, found difficult: persuading customers who had already moved on to believe Intel’s story. Tan has been refreshingly straightforward. He has focused product roadmaps, reduced projects, reduced staff, and—possibly most importantly—opened Intel’s 18A foundry node to outside clients. The last point is more important than it may seem.

Intel produced chips exclusively for itself for many years. It is directly competing with TSMC and Samsung for contract manufacturing work when it opens the factory to outside clients. Although it’s still unclear if that approach will ultimately be successful, it does send the message that Intel is no longer pretending to be what it once was.

The catalysts then appeared. On January 22, Q4 2025 earnings exceeded projections with non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 compared to a $0.08 estimate and revenue of $13.67 billion compared to a $13.37 billion forecast. Citing AI-driven demand, management increased Xeon server revenue projections by 36%. HSBC upgraded, and Bernstein almost doubled its price target to $60. Although it seemed ridiculous at the time, Northland’s outperform rating at a $92 target now seems more reasonable. Then, in April, it was revealed that Intel had discreetly joined Tesla and SpaceX in Elon Musk’s Terafab project, an ambiguous but politically significant collaboration with the goal of creating what Musk refers to as “a terawatt of compute per year.” There aren’t many details. It’s not the picture of Tan and Musk on the Intel campus.

Nevertheless, there is a lot of skepticism, and for good reason. The stock is currently trading at about 128 times its 2026 earnings. The forward P/E is close to 64x, which is rich by any measure, even with 2027 estimates of $1.07 per share. The foundry division of Intel continues to lose $2.5 billion every quarter. The net margins are still negative. In Q4 2025, revenue decreased 4.1 percent from the previous year. The stock appears to be technically overbought based on the RSI reading of 78. Additionally, the $51.25 analyst consensus price target is a full 25% lower than the current price. Wall Street believes that Intel has moved too quickly.

Speaking with those who have covered this company for years gives me the impression that the market is pricing in a future Intel rather than the current one. Investors appear to think that 18A will attract outside clients, that Terafab is genuine, that the AI server cycle will continue to increase Xeon demand, and that Lip-Bu Tan will fulfill a roadmap that his predecessor was unable to. A significant portion of this rally could be swiftly reversed if any one of those assumptions falters, especially on Thursday’s Q1 earnings call. After earnings, futures markets are already pricing in a swing of 11 to 12 percent, either way.

As this develops, it’s difficult to ignore how quickly opinions about a single stock can change. The widespread belief that Intel was done a year ago serves as a reminder that even outstanding American businesses are eventually surpassed. The consensus now is more akin to cautious optimism. On April 23, the next chapter will be written, and in a single session, the difference between Intel’s current value and what it was will either get smaller or bigger.