These days, if you walk through the watch floor at any Geneva authorized dealer, something seems strange. The cases are full. The salespeople pay attention—possibly a bit too much. The well-known waiting lists, those velvet-rope lines that made adults feel fortunate to be taken into consideration, have all but vanished. It’s not being discussed aloud. However, the numbers don’t lie, and it has been quite different to watch this industry attempt to accept that fact.
Luxury timepieces seemed certain during the pandemic. People were purchasing timepieces in the same way they used to purchase concert tickets—urgently, emotionally, and occasionally irrationally—because money was tight and travel was restricted. The secondary market skyrocketed. Even seasoned collectors blinked at the prices of a steel-cased Patek Philippe Nautilus. For a brief moment, watches seemed to have cracked the code; they were tangible, appealing, and somehow impervious to inflation. The moment has passed. The WatchCharts Overall Market Index has dropped 33% from its pandemic peak, and Bain analysts predict low single-digit growth for the coming years. Ten years, perhaps. It isn’t a correction. It is a reset.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Industry | Swiss Luxury Watchmaking |
| Key Index | WatchCharts Overall Market Index — down 33% from pandemic peak |
| Major Bodies | Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, LuxeConsult |
| Brands Most Affected | TAG Heuer, Omega, Breitling, IWC — mid-to-upper tier struggling hardest |
| The Big Three | Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet — still expanding production through 2029 |
| US Tariff Rate | 15% on Swiss goods (originally announced at 39%) |
| Pre-Owned Sales Surge | Subdial reported 160% jump in April 2025 |
| China Factor | Real estate and banking crisis decimating Greater China luxury sales |
| Middle East Impact | Gulf markets represent ~10% of Swiss exports; UAE tourism-driven sales effectively halted |
| Gen Z Shift | Cartier’s share of Gen Z pre-owned purchases rose from 1.7% to 6.8% over seven years |
At once, several things broke. After COVID lockdowns, a real estate crisis, and banking instability severely damaged consumer confidence throughout Greater China, China, which had been the industry’s most dependable growth engine for years, fell silent. Oliver Müller, the founder of the consulting firm LuxeConsult, stated unequivocally that the harm there was severe, detrimental, and did not occur gradually. Additionally, Swiss watch exports suffered simultaneous setbacks in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States, leaving brands scrambling for ground that kept shifting beneath them.
The tariffs came next. The industry was on the verge of panic when President Trump first announced 39% duties on goods made in Switzerland. Eventually, the rate dropped to 15%, but the uncertainty that followed caused its own kind of harm: consumers were unsure whether to buy now or wait, retailers were unsure how to stock, and brands were unsure how to price. It’s still unclear if the tariff situation will stabilize or worsen, and this uncertainty can cause markets to freeze.
And the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, which started in late February, threw everything into disarray just as a shaky optimism for 2026 was starting to take shape. The Gulf Arab states, which account for about 10% of all Swiss watch exports, are now uncertain. Business has essentially stalled in the UAE, where tourism usually accounts for about 60% of luxury watch purchases. Prices for precious metals are rising once more, putting pressure on production margins while consumer prudence puts pressure on demand. The industry was more nervous than anyone in the exhibition halls seemed willing to acknowledge when they arrived at the Watches and Wonders fair in Geneva in April.
However, it seems that the brands that were created to last are demonstrating this. The “Big Three,” Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, and Rolex, are actually expanding their production capacity through 2029, relying on designs that haven’t changed much in decades and somehow appeal to younger consumers who were raised on vintage aesthetics and resale culture. It turns out that a 26-year-old can relate to a Rolex Submariner from the 1950s better than anything introduced at the previous year’s fair. Depending on how you interpret it, that can be either profoundly ironic or poetic.
Right now, real momentum is found in the pre-owned market. When the tariffs first went into effect, Subdial reported a 160% increase in sales, and Gen Z consumers are genuinely drawn to Cartier Tanks and heritage Omegas because they view timepieces more like rotating wardrobe pieces than lifetime investments. This energy may eventually boost the industry as a whole. Additionally, a generation that purchases used goods at reduced costs might never develop into the full-price retail client that traditional watchmakers require. The industry is waiting impatiently for an answer to that question.
