For months now, two of the world’s most influential credit rating agencies have been secretly obsessed with a number that hardly anyone discusses at dinner parties. It’s not the rate of unemployment. Inflation is not the cause. As of March, the United States’ public debt to GDP ratio surpassed a threshold not seen since the aftermath of World War II was still being cleared.
The statistics were released earlier this year by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, almost as casually as you might say that your lawn needs to be mowed. The total amount of public debt in the United States is $31.27 trillion. $31.22 trillion was generated by the economy itself. Now, the debt exceeds the amount owed by the nation. Nothing is different when you stroll by the Treasury Building in Washington during the week. The same tourists, the same coffee carts, the same lobbyists hiding in black SUVs. However, the math has changed somewhere inside.
| Key Information | Details |
|---|---|
| Topic | U.S. Public Debt vs. GDP — A Post-WWII First |
| Indicator Being Watched | Debt-to-GDP Ratio |
| U.S. Public Debt (March 2026) | $31.27 trillion |
| U.S. Annual GDP | $31.22 trillion |
| Current Fitch Rating | AA+ (Stable) |
| Year of Last Fitch Downgrade | 2023 |
| Projected U.S. Deficit (2026 & 2027) | 7.9% of GDP |
| Estimated Debt Addition from OBBBA | $4.7 trillion through 2035 |
| Projected U.S. Debt by 2035 | $58 trillion |
| Forecasted U.S. GDP Growth (2026) | 2.2% |
| Global GDP Growth Forecast (2026) | 2.6% |
| Key Watchdog | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) |
Fitch was the first to notice, or at least to say so. Its analysts cautioned in a report released last week that the United States’ creditworthiness is being squeezed by “structurally large fiscal deficits.” The wording is intentionally dry. Citing the political drama surrounding the debt ceiling, Fitch removed the United States from its top-tier AAA rating back in 2023. It appears that the agency is now determining how patient it can be.
For its part, Moody’s has been making similar noises. The same anxiety but different vocabulary. Investors typically pay attention when two agencies that have historically disagreed on tone begin to agree on substance, even if the signal is buried in a footnote on page eleven.
There is no mystery surrounding the causes of the skyrocketing debt. The CRFB projects that the significant tax cuts made possible by the Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will increase the national debt by $4.7 trillion through 2035. Some of that gap was meant to be filled by tariffs. An estimated $1.7 trillion was removed from the table when the Supreme Court overturned the majority of them earlier this year. Politics is irrelevant to the math. It simply keeps getting worse.
The indicator’s complexity isn’t what makes it difficult to understand; even a high school student can compute debt divided by GDP. The reason is that it typically moves slowly—in fractions of a percent—until all of a sudden it stops. The 100% threshold crossing is more symbolic than mechanical, but when you’re the global reserve currency issuer, symbols are important. The strength of the dollar, the depth of the U.S. capital markets, and the long-standing practice of foreign central banks holding money in Treasurys all depend on a level of confidence that is difficult to gauge until it begins to erode.
Next year, Fitch predicts U.S. growth at 2.2%, which is marginally higher than its January estimate but still modest. Growth in the Eurozone is expected to be 1.3%. China’s growth is slowing to 4.3%. By themselves, none of these figures are disastrous. When combined, however, they point to a global economy with limited capacity to withstand shocks.
Right now, it’s difficult to ignore the quiet alignment in the rating world. Moody’s and Fitch typically don’t work together. When they do, history indicates that it is worthwhile to pay attention, even if the indicator they are observing seems like something that only actuaries would find fascinating.
